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Obstacles Remain for Sudan's New Hopes of Peace

During the next week the Islamic Government of Sudan and the Sudanese People's Liberation Movement are expected to sign an agreement that many hope will raise a new era of peace out of a history marked with conflict and fighting.

As reported by Andrew England of the Financial Times (HT: Sudan Watch), the peace accord brings to a war weary people:

... the hope of much-needed development after millions of dollars were wasted on a conflict that killed an estimated 2m people.

It also holds the promise of elections after more than a decade of autocratic rule by a government accused of human rights abuses and of sponsoring terrorists including Osama bin Laden.

And there is the hope that it will help end Sudan's latest crisis, a separate insurgency in the western region of Darfur.... Diplomats hope the southern deal will help end the insurgency because the SPLA had links to the Darfur insurgents. Some also believe administrative arrangements planned for three disputed areas in central Sudan could be used as models for other marginalised areas.

Yet England observes significant challenges lie ahead. Although an integrated government is planned the two sides distruct each other. After a 21-year war and the loss of millions of lives this is not a surprise. The crisis in Dafur adds to the mistrust (and should) and poses a substantial challenge to the peace process. Instability and division exist not only in Dafur and southern Sudan but also in the East where groups claim they have been marginalized.

Finally, a primary motivating factor appears to be financial. England writes,

But increasing violence threatens the peace dividends expected by Khartoum, which hopes to be welcomed back into the international fold after years as a pariah state.

The European Union has said it will begin the process of unlocking €400m (£280m, $540m) in development funds held back since 1990 but will be closely watching developments.

A UK-led international initiative to help with Sudan's $26bn debt is expected to be delayed, however.

And it is unlikely that the US Congress, which has described the violence in Darfur as genocide, will allow sanctions to be lifted unless there is a dramatic improvement there.

The means to overcome these obstacles, according to England, is international assistance. "The international community's support for the peace process will be critical to its success," he concludes.

Based upon Sudan's history and the notable differences in the culture and religion it would seem that outside assistance is indeed necessary to enable a country that is deeply divided live in harmony. I written more on this here and here.

Posted by tim at January 3, 2005 12:17 AM

Articles Related to Sudan:

Spotlight on Darfur Monthly Post - Sep 07, 2005
Spotlight on Darfur Announcement - a call to bloggers - Aug 29, 2005
Was Sudan Leader John Garang's Death an Accident? - Aug 15, 2005
Southern Sudan's Garang Killed - Aug 01, 2005
A Prayer for the Dying in Darfur - Jul 13, 2005
Darfur - Conflicting Priorities of the International Community - Jun 29, 2005
The Future of Darfur, Sudan - Update - Jun 15, 2005
The Slow Reaction to Genocide in Darfur, Sudan - Jun 08, 2005
Darfur, Sudan: Improvement is in the Eye of the Beholder - Jun 01, 2005
After Supporting Genocide in Darfur, China Pledges Peace Keeping Troops for Sudan - May 24, 2005

Comments

Hello Tim, You've written some great posts on the Sudan. Thanks. Signing of final peace agreement is due take place Jan. 9. I guess there will be quite a fanfare - even ex US President Carter is attending. One can only hope it is the real McCoy. Some reports are saying that the Southern rebels will be withdrawing troops over a 6-8 month period and the Sudanese forces over a 30-month period. I find it difficult to believe there won't be fall outs in between unless tens of thousands of peacekeepers are in place. Thousands of UN peacekeepers are expected after the signing of the final agreement. This I believe is the only hope for peace, unimpeded access for aid and aid workers - and if the troops have an expanded mandate: security and protection for the refugees so they can return home and start planting their own food. The present regime in Khartoum (unelected dictators that stole power through a coup) had no option but to compromise with the rebels. Khartoum's position is weakening. The rebels' strategy is working. My belief is the rebels will not give up until the government of Sudan is weakened to such an extent it is overthrown. As reported in one of my recent posts, the Darfur rebels now have their sights set on two regions adjacent to Darfur where there are oil operations. Next will come a rebellion in Eastern Sudan by those who feel the region is as marginalised as Darfur in Western Sudan - neither regions nor central Sudan are included in the new peace agreement and power sharing deals due to be signed Jan 9. There is talk that new rebel groups could spring up out of nowhere - even in Southern Sudan after the peace deal is signed. The camps of the so-called Janjaweed were never dismantled, the Arab tribal leaders are still at large and a law unto themselves: they rule vast regions by fear and benevolence. Sudan is so huge there is no real law and order. Bandits run amok and make their living through theft and looting. Who funds the rebels for so long is one question I keep asking that I cannot find answers to. Some of them seem to have their bases in Europe. Hope you keep in touch by visiting again. Best wishes for a peaceful 2005.

Posted by: Ingrid at January 4, 2005 9:36 AM